Chances and Luck in Chess
Chess is a skill based game and that’s true. But you will require luck at certain stage and also you have to give some chance to yourself. More chances you will give, more luck will be with you. We will see this with some examples and will deep dive into it in this blog post.
What Luck Really Looks Like in Chess
Let’s be honest — we’ve all had moments where:
You blunder a piece… but your opponent doesn’t see it.
You are completely winning, but you lose on time
Mouseslip in the case of online games
Those moments? That’s luck. And it’s part of the game. Even at the highest levels, it decides results. The difference is — stronger players put themselves in positions where luck can help them more often.
I remember some tournaments where I played absolutely disgusting but still managed to win the games. That’s a luck. One of the tournaments I always remember is Pardubice Open 2019, where I scored my norm. My rating was 2318. Let’s deep dive into it.
Round 1 against a 2100-rated player and I was black
I played Qa6 and this position is completely winning for white. White should play Nxg6 and it’s very easy to win the game. Fortunately, my opponent did not play that move and lost
Round 3 against 2177, and I was black
Look at the above position. It’s completely losing for black and Stockfish showing +3.2 advantage. Maybe not so easy, but still black has almost no chances to win.
Round 6 against an International Master who is 2450, and I was white
We reached this position and it’s winning for black. Engine is showing +4 advantage for black. Well guess what? My opponent played Qb6?? and then it’s winning for white with Nd5!!. He resigned after Nd5
Round 7 against IM Noe who was 2534 player and recently he became a Grandmaster. I was black
Look at the above position. Black has zero chances to win. He was higher-rated and strong player. But I survived this game and managed to draw magically
Learnings-
Out of 9 rounds, I lost in 4 games, which I survived and won some and drew some games. I lost 2 games and the remaining 3 games I played okayish (Not so great)
Results???
I scored my 3rd International Master norm.
This is a peak example of luck.
But I have also faced exact opposite challenge. In Abu Dhabi 2023, I was winning multiple games which I lost and instead of scoring norm, I only gained 2 rating points.
Luck plays an important part in life. Whether it’s a chess or business. Even getting a good wife or finding a good house or in fact, every decision we take is based on some or more luck.
Why You Need to Give Yourself More Chances
The more games you play, the more situations you face. And the more situations you face, the more chances you give yourself for things to go right.
Think about it like this:
If you only play 10 serious games a year, a bit of bad luck in one game can ruin your entire season. But if you play 100 games, one unlucky loss doesn’t matter much — and somewhere in those 100, fortune will swing in your favor.
The biggest mistake I see players make is sitting out events because they “don’t feel ready” or waiting for the “perfect form.” In chess, you don’t need perfect form to win tournaments — you need enough chances.
Take any player who becomes a Grandmaster. Let’s say Gukesh or Arjun. Look at the number of games they have played when they were 2450-2600. They played almost any types of tournaments. I remember Arjun played national championship with rating 2701 which is not easy at all.
You will not find a player who played less games and achieved chess titles. Because of luck and chances logic. More games is equal to more chances is equal to more luck.
How to Increase Your Chess Luck
You can’t control the exact moment luck appears, but you can control how many opportunities you create for it:
Play More Tournaments: More games = more possibilities.
Try Different Formats: Blitz, rapid, classical — each gives different types of chances.
Stay in the Game: Even when worse, fight on. Fortune helps those who keep trying.
Build Stamina: A tired opponent makes more mistakes. Long events reward endurance.
Final Thought
Luck is not something to rely on. It’s something to invite. And the best way to invite it is to play more, fight harder, and give yourself the best possible chance to succeed.
Try to find a way to play more tournaments. India, America and Europe have tons of tournaments and players generally don’t find a month where there is no chess event.
Try to be luckier than everyone else. Sometimes you have to take risks on the board to win quickly, and then your friends may say that you are lucky!